Judgment判断

When I consider an opportunity, I look not only at how good it is, but also at what it would cost to pursue.

Take investing. A good company is not necessarily a good investment at every price. If its share price has already risen too far, even continued growth may not bring the return I hope for. There is also the question of what else I might miss while my money is tied up.

I think about business opportunities in much the same way. An idea can sound promising, but I still want to understand why a customer would pay, what I would need to put in, and what I could deliver. I ask those questions when taking on a research project and when considering an AI product.

However good an idea sounds, whether it works depends on the details. I think those through before deciding where to put my effort.

我看一件事，不只看它好不好，也看为了得到它，需要付出什么。

比如投资。一家公司发展得好，不代表它的股票在任何价格都值得买。如果股价已经涨得太高，未来即使继续增长，也未必能带来理想的回报。钱放在那里，还要考虑这段时间错过了什么。

看商业机会时，我也会这样想。一个方向听起来不错，我还要弄清楚：客户为什么愿意付钱，我需要投入多少，最后能交付什么。接研究项目时如此，考虑 AI 产品时也是这样。

想法再好，能不能做成还要看具体条件。想清楚这些，我再决定要不要投入。